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After Bitcoin briefly breached $20,000 in December of 2017, the cryptocurrency began a precipitous decline, with its price plummeting from the heights of five digits to $3,150 within 12 months’ time, representing an 80% decline.
Since the decline began, crypto investors across the board have been wondering when Bitcoin will find itself above $20,000 again, or more specifically, they’ve been wondering when BTC will put in a new all-time high.
According to a prominent trader — one who called Bitcoin’s decline to the $6,000s literal months ago — this high is likely to come in around the start of 2021, just 12 to 15 months away from now.
Bitcoin To Hit $25k In 2021: Elliot Wave
Dave the Wave, a popular cryptocurrency trader, recently noted that Bitcoin may see some bearish price action in the near term, but will soon restart its long-term bull trend that will bring it to $25,000 — 270% higher than current prices — by the start of 2021.
He specifically cited a five-wave Elliot Wave bull run, which will see Bitcoin bottom in the next few weeks before a surge to $25,000, see a brief correction, then finish the bullish run above $100,000.
So what are Dave’s credentials? Why should we listen to a Twitter analyst whose avatar is the famous Japanese painting of a tsunami?
Well, this trader is the one that called for rationality to return to the crypto markets when BTC was trading above $10,000, claiming the move was a clear overextension of BTC’s long-term growth curve and standards. He went as far as to say that Bitcoin was poised to return to $6,700 — this was months ago.
To add to his accolades, Dave has been relatively accurate in calling the short-term price action, further giving credence to his optimistic Bitcoin prediction.
Others Agree With Lofty Sentiment
Even if you don’t agree with Dave’s assessment that Bitcoin will put in a fresh high at the start of 2021, two prominent investment fund managers in the crypto industry agree with his analysis. The fund managers, Travis Kling, current CIO of Ikigai Asset Management and former Point 72 portfolio manager, and Mike Novogratz of Galaxy Digital.
Both of these prominent Bitcoin analysts have asserted in recent interviews that they believe that the leading cryptocurrency will top $20,000 and hit a new all-time high by the early-2021 region.
Speaking to CNN’s Julia Chatterley in a recent segment for “First Move” in October, the former Wall Streeter turned cryptocurrency fund manager and investor, Novogratz said that he expects for Bitcoin to hit $20,000 in 18 months’ time. This would represent a 180% move from current levels if it plays out.
This came shortly after Kling said that by late-2020 or early-2021 — around 18 months from now — the Bitcoin price is likely to have surmounted its previous all-time high to establish a new one.
Bitcoin Just Reversed And Its Likely Heading $7,400
Bitcoin started a strong upward move from the $6,880 support area against the US Dollar.The price is reversing losses and it is now well above $7,100.
There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near $7,120 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
The current technical structure suggests reversal signs towards the $7,500 resistance area.
Bitcoin price is climbing with a bullish angle above $7,000 against the US Dollar. BTC is likely to accelerate higher if it clears the $7,260 resistance.
Bitcoin Price Analysis
Recently, there was a downside extension in bitcoin below the $7,100 and $7,000 support levels against the US Dollar. BTC price spiked towards the $6,880 support and traded to a new 2020 low at $6,863.
However, the bulls took a stand, resulting in a sharp upward move above the $7,000 resistance. Besides, there was a break above the $7,080 resistance area. More importantly, there was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near $7,120 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.
The pair spiked above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $7,530 high to $6,863 low. Though, the upward move was capped by the $7,260 resistance area.
Additionally, the price is facing hurdles near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $7,530 high to $6,863 low. Bitcoin is currently correcting lower below $7,200.
On the downside, an initial support is near the $7,120 level and the broken trend line. The next major support is near the $7,080 level, below which the price is likely to resume its downtrend.
Conversely, the price might continue to rise above the $7,260 resistance. The next major resistance is near the $7,400 level. An intermediate resistance is the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $7,530 high to $6,863 low.
If the price continues to rise above $7,380 and $7,400, the next stop for the bulls may perhaps be $7,460 and $7,500. Any further gains could lead the price towards the $7,500 resistance area in the coming sessions.
Bitcoin Price
Looking at the chart, bitcoin price is reversing losses above $7,100 and the 100 hourly SMA. If there is another surge above $7,260, it will most likely confirm a trend change and a fresh increase towards $7,500.
Technical indicators:
Hourly MACD – The MACD is currently gaining strength in the bullish zone.
Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now well above the 50 level.
Major Support Levels – $7,120 followed by $7,080.
Major Resistance Levels – $7,260, $7,380 and $7,460.
Do NOT write off Decentralized exchanges (DEXs) in 2020, analyst says.
The past year has seen massive growth in decentralized finance (DeFi) as lending dApps, derivatives, payment channels and decentralized exchanges (DEXs) gained magnificent USD and crypto holdings. Despite not hitting all-time highs during 2019, DEXes have witnessed meticulous growth hitting $2.3 billion USD in trade volume through the year. Top decentralized exchanges such as IDEX, Kyber and Uniswap have been at the center stage of the rise with 2020 providing an opportunity for the field to finally blow off.
Ryan Selkis on Twitter urged the crypto community not to be so fast in dismissing DEXes given the massive growth through 2019. He wrote,
“Anyone who’s written off DEX is misguided. DEX volumes in 2019 were greater than BTC’s on chain transaction volumes in 2012. (It’s just as early for DEX.)”
IDAX leads DEXes in 2019
According to Dune Analytics, an Ethereum data website, the total volume traded on DEX platforms through 2019 stood at $2, 366,288,147 USD. The total weekly volume stands at $25.9 million USD, as at time of writing, representing a sharp 23.3% drop week on week growth.
IDAX exchange leads the field with over $850 million traded on the platform last year. Oasis DEX came a distant second trading ~$500million USD on the platform through 2019. Kyber, Uniswap and 0x closed out the top five positions with a total of $380 M, $370M and $228 M respectively.
What is even more appealing to DEXes is the month on month growth seen in 2019 (minus about three months following Bitcoin’s fall from yearly highs of $13,800 USD to $7,000 USD region). Kyber Protocol in particular has been a revelation through the year reaching a monthly high of $57.6 million USD in trading volume in July. Looking at the chart below, a clear growth pattern is easily visible signaling an increasing interest in DEXes from traditional centralized exchanges.
Do NOT write off Decentralized exchanges (DEXs) in 2020, analyst says
While the DEXes still trade only a fraction of the volume on centralized exchanges such as Binance and Bitfinex, major developments in user experience and ease of trading sets the path to greater growth through 2020.
Fishing boats moored in the harbor, Hainan, China. (Image credit: Bigstock/gyn9038)
Government initiatives and policies to create a less hostile blockchain space in China have led to an influx of money and companies, old and new. The blockchain hub incentives offer a window of opportunity to those firms previously banished from the domestic market in the crypto purge of 2017.
President Xi’s October remarks on the significance of blockchain and the continued talk of a digital fiat currency elevated excitement surrounding the technology.
Hainan, China’s smallest and southernmost province, found itself in the middle of the newfound blockchain fervor. In December, the Hainan government announced a series of new measures to attract talent and funding to boost the adoption of the technology. The government also inked multiple partnerships with countries along the Belt and Road at the Hainan Free Trade Port International Cooperation Forum on Digital Economy and Blockchain in the provincial capital Haikou.
Blockchain and digital asset firms are also taking notice of the opportunities. Tech companies and startups are flocking to Hainan. Those previously forced out of the sector see a window of opportunity to gain legitimacy.
China’s new blockchain hub
The island province has gained strategic importance in recent years, given its vicinity to Southeast Asia and isolation from the rest of China. The province’s situation allows the government to more easily conduct blockchain pilots as well as set up financial regulatory sandboxes. These are significant as China views blockchain as a potential leg up in the global tech race.
President Xi announced the free trade zone last April with a view to developing tourism, modern service industries, and high-tech industries, including blockchain.
Hainan is the newest of the 12 special zones and the largest in size. The province is also home to China’s first blockchain testing zone, officially launched last October.
According to Yang Chunzhi, general manager at China Hainan Ecology Software Park, the first half of 2018 saw difficult discussions on how to set up the testing zone. Blockchain had gained a bad rep in China, he said, adding that there were other issues with technology, talent, and applications.
However, Yang said, speaking at a conference on international cooperation, it is evident that the development of the policy framework for blockchain trails far behind advances in the market and the technology. The testing zone is meant to solve this.
On the research front, there has been an ongoing collaboration with educational institutions like Oxford University’s blockchain research center and with companies like Huobi. They also help train tech talent as well as government officials, Yang said.
The newly announced promotional measures for blockchain include an RMB 1 billion ($142 million) fund dedicated to attracting startups and talent to the special zone. Over the past year, Hainan has attracted over 70 blockchain companies including Baidu Blockchain Lab, 360 Blockchain, Xunlei Blockchain, OK Group, and Huobi Group.
A platform for China reentry
Hainan’s efforts to build a pro-blockchain environment is attracting many who hope to get in on the action.
China brought in a blanket ban on crypto activities, including initial coin offerings and digital asset exchanges in late 2017, creating a hostile environment for blockchain and cryptocurrency companies. Many major trading platforms, including Binance, Huobi, and OkCoin, shifted operations overseas. Recent optimism in the sector has prompted many companies to rethink their China strategy.
On top of the billion-yuan national blockchain investment, OK Group, the operator of the OkCoin exchange, announced a $140 million deal with the Hainan government on Dec. 1 to set up an “Asia Pacific Innovation Center” in the province to help build up the blockchain ecosystem.
Formerly Beijing-based, OkCoin moved operations to California in 2017.
Huobi, another significant exchange, moved to Singapore following the ban before officially setting up a China headquarters in Hainan in late 2018. The company has established a close relationship with the Hainan government. The company co-organized the forum in early Dember and took on a substantial role in the event. Huobi was also the only private company to sign the cooperation agreement with BRI countries.
Crypto exchanges willing to work with the government on blockchain initiatives are getting the nod to return to the coveted China market, Matthew Graham, chief executive at Sino Global Capital, noted in a tweet.
Companies woo the local government with a generous investment with the promise of bringing talent, technology, and resources to the island to get a foot back in the door of the Chinese market. In turn, opening up to startups and talent allows the island to boost its hi-tech sector and the development of a blockchain ecosystem in line with national plans.
However, not everyone is sold on Hainan’s blockchain ambitions.
“It’s hard for Hainan to retain talent given there are a lot of opportunists and adventurists and people who want to benefit from favorable policies,” (our translation) Gu Qianfung, chief technology officer at BTC Media Asia Pacific and a prominent Chinese blockchain commentator,told Chinese media.
Gu pointed out that Hainan has a relatively weak foundation for these industries. Its economy had long been relying on tourism. The nascent blockchain industry is still a long shot from competing against hubs like Singapore that have a mature digital economy.
China has been rapidly accelerating the development of blockchain and is establishing regional hubs in cities like Haikou and Shenzhen, allowing it to test out new blockchain applications as well as regulatory frameworks. To create these hubs, the country needs more favorable policies to attract a slew of blockchain and digital asset companies, as well as talent.
The plan is not only is a step toward China achieving its ambitious blockchain goals but also a golden opportunity for companies that have long yearned to grow a presence in the market and build a rapport with the government. In terms of its actual effectiveness, it is still too early to say.
